![]() | submitted by bitmex_register to u/bitmex_register [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/fl5e0q7i3cc41.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=445485d722839a9adc1ae13db4c965b0ae3e67b7 Founded by HDR Global Trading Limited (which in turn was founded by former bankers Arthur Hayes, Samuel Reed and Ben Delo) in 2014, BitMEX is a trading platform operating around the world and registered in the Seychelles. Meaning Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange, BitMEX is one of the largest Bitcoin trading platforms currently operating, with a daily trading volume of over 35,000 BTC and over 540,000 accesses monthly and a trading history of over $34 billion worth of Bitcoin since its inception. https://preview.redd.it/coenpm4k3cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8832dcafa5bd615b511bbeb6118ef43d73ed785e Unlike many other trading exchanges, BitMEX only accepts deposits through Bitcoin, which can then be used to purchase a variety of other cryptocurrencies. BitMEX specialises in sophisticated financial operations such as margin trading, which is trading with leverage. Like many of the exchanges that operate through cryptocurrencies, BitMEX is currently unregulated in any jurisdiction. Visit BitMEX How to Sign Up to BitMEXIn order to create an account on BitMEX, users first have to register with the website. Registration only requires an email address, the email address must be a genuine address as users will receive an email to confirm registration in order to verify the account. Once users are registered, there are no trading limits. Traders must be at least 18 years of age to sign up.https://preview.redd.it/0v13qoil3cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6134bc089c4e352dce10d754dc84ff11a4c7994 However, it should be noted that BitMEX does not accept any US-based traders and will use IP checks to verify that users are not in the US. While some US users have bypassed this with the use of a VPN, it is not recommended that US individuals sign up to the BitMEX service, especially given the fact that alternative exchanges are available to service US customers that function within the US legal framework. How to Use BitMEX BitMEX allows users to trade cryptocurrencies against a number of fiat currencies, namely the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan. BitMEX allows users to trade a number of different cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, Monero, Ripple, Tezos and Zcash. The trading platform on BitMEX is very intuitive and easy to use for those familiar with similar markets. However, it is not for the beginner. The interface does look a little dated when compared to newer exchanges like Binance and Kucoin’s. Once users have signed up to the platform, they should click on Trade, and all the trading instruments will be displayed beneath. Clicking on the particular instrument opens the orderbook, recent trades, and the order slip on the left. The order book shows three columns – the bid value for the underlying asset, the quantity of the order, and the total USD value of all orders, both short and long. The widgets on the trading platform can be changed according to the user’s viewing preferences, allowing users to have full control on what is displayed. It also has a built in feature that provides for TradingView charting. This offers a wide range of charting tool and is considered to be an improvement on many of the offering available from many of its competitors. https://preview.redd.it/fabg1nxo3cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d939889c3eac15ab1e78ec37a8ccd13fc5e0573 Once trades are made, all orders can be easily viewed in the trading platform interface. There are tabs where users can select their Active Orders, see the Stops that are in place, check the Orders Filled (total or partially) and the trade history. On the Active Orders and Stops tabs, traders can cancel any order, by clicking the “Cancel” button. Users also see all currently open positions, with an analysis if it is in the black or red. BitMEX uses a method called auto-deleveraging which BitMEX uses to ensure that liquidated positions are able to be closed even in a volatile market. Auto-deleveraging means that if a position bankrupts without available liquidity, the positive side of the position deleverages, in order of profitability and leverage, the highest leveraged position first in queue. Traders are always shown where they sit in the auto-deleveraging queue, if such is needed. Although the BitMEX platform is optimized for mobile, it only has an Android app (which is not official). There is no iOS app available at present. However, it is recommended that users use it on the desktop if possible. BitMEX offers a variety of order types for users:
Futures and SwapsA futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a given asset in the future at a predetermined price. On BitMEX, users can leverage up to 100x on certain contracts.Perpetual swaps are similar to futures, except that there is no expiry date for them and no settlement. Additionally, they trade close to the underlying reference Index Price, unlike futures, which may diverge substantially from the Index Price. BitMEX also offers Binary series contracts, which are prediction-based contracts which can only settle at either 0 or 100. In essence, the Binary series contracts are a more complicated way of making a bet on a given event. The only Binary series betting instrument currently available is related to the next 1mb block on the Bitcoin blockchain. Binary series contracts are traded with no leverage, a 0% maker fee, a 0.25% taker fee and 0.25% settlement fee. Bitmex LeverageBitMEX allows its traders to leverage their position on the platform. Leverage is the ability to place orders that are bigger than the users’ existing balance. This could lead to a higher profit in comparison when placing an order with only the wallet balance. Trading in such conditions is called “Margin Trading.”There are two types of Margin Trading: Isolated and Cross-Margin. The former allows the user to select the amount of money in their wallet that should be used to hold their position after an order is placed. However, the latter provides that all of the money in the users’ wallet can be used to hold their position, and therefore should be treated with extreme caution. https://preview.redd.it/eg4qk9qr3cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c3ca8cdf654330ce53e8138d774e72155acf0e7e The BitMEX platform allows users to set their leverage level by using the leverage slider. A maximum leverage of 1:100 is available (on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash). This is quite a high level of leverage for cryptocurrencies, with the average offered by other exchanges rarely exceeding 1:20. BitMEX FeesFor traditional futures trading, BitMEX has a straightforward fee schedule. As noted, in terms of leverage offered, BitMEX offers up to 100% leverage, with the amount off leverage varying from product to product.However, it should be noted that trading at the highest leverages is sophisticated and is intended for professional investors that are familiar with speculative trading. The fees and leverage are as follows: https://preview.redd.it/wvhiepht3cc41.jpg?width=730&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0617eb894c13d3870211a01d51af98561907cb99 https://preview.redd.it/qhi8izcu3cc41.jpg?width=730&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09da4efe1de4214b0b5b9c7501aba5320e846b4c However, there are additional fees for hidden / iceberg orders. A hidden order pays the taker fee until the entire hidden quantity is completely executed. Then, the order will become normal, and the user will receive the maker rebate for the non-hidden amount. Deposits and WithdrawalsBitMEX does not charge fees on deposits or withdrawals. However, when withdrawing Bitcoin, the minimum Network fee is based on blockchain load. The only costs therefore are those of the banks or the cryptocurrency networks.As noted previously, BitMEX only accepts deposits in Bitcoin and therefore Bitcoin serves as collateral on trading contracts, regardless of whether or not the trade involves Bitcoin. The minimum deposit is 0.001 BTC. There are no limits on withdrawals, but withdrawals can also be in Bitcoin only. To make a withdrawal, all that users need to do is insert the amount to withdraw and the wallet address to complete the transfer. https://preview.redd.it/xj1kbuew3cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68056f2247001c63e89c880cfbb75b2f3616e8fe Deposits can be made 24/7 but withdrawals are processed by hand at a recurring time once per day. The hand processed withdrawals are intended to increase the security levels of users’ funds by providing extra time (and email notice) to cancel any fraudulent withdrawal requests, as well as bypassing the use of automated systems & hot wallets which may be more prone to compromise. Supported CurrenciesBitMEX operates as a crypto to crypto exchange and makes use of a Bitcoin-in/Bitcoin-out structure. Therefore, platform users are currently unable to use fiat currencies for any payments or transfers, however, a plus side of this is that there are no limits for trading and the exchange incorporates trading pairs linked to the US Dollar (XBT), Japanese Yen (XBJ), and Chinese Yuan (XBC).BitMEX supports the following cryptocurrencies:
Trading Technologies International PartnershipHDR Global Trading, the company which owns BitMEX, has recently announced a partnership with Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a leading international high-performance trading software provider.The TT platform is designed specifically for professional traders, brokers, and market-access providers, and incorporates a wide variety of trading tools and analytical indicators that allow even the most advanced traders to customize the software to suit their unique trading styles. The TT platform also provides traders with global market access and trade execution through its privately managed infrastructure and the partnership will see BitMEX users gaining access to the trading tools on all BitMEX products, including the popular XBT/USD Perpetual Swap pairing. https://preview.redd.it/qcqunaby3cc41.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=b77b45ac2b44a9af30a4985e3d9dbafc9bbdb77c The BitMEX Insurance FundThe ability to trade on leverage is one of the exchange’s main selling points and offering leverage and providing the opportunity for traders to trade against each other may result in a situation where the winners do not receive all of their expected profits. As a result of the amounts of leverage involved, it’s possible that the losers may not have enough margin in their positions to pay the winners.Traditional exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offset this problem by utilizing multiple layers of protection and cryptocurrency trading platforms offering leverage cannot currently match the levels of protection provided to winning traders. In addition, cryptocurrency exchanges offering leveraged trades propose a capped downside and unlimited upside on a highly volatile asset with the caveat being that on occasion, there may not be enough funds in the system to pay out the winners. To help solve this problem, BitMEX has developed an insurance fund system, and when a trader has an open leveraged position, their position is forcefully closed or liquidated when their maintenance margin is too low. Here, a trader’s profit and loss does not reflect the actual price their position was closed on the market, and with BitMEX when a trader is liquidated, their equity associated with the position drops down to zero. In the following example, the trader has taken a 100x long position. In the event that the mark price of Bitcoin falls to $3,980 (by 0.5%), then the position gets liquidated with the 100 Bitcoin position needing to be sold on the market. This means that it does not matter what price this trade executes at, namely if it’s $3,995 or $3,000, as from the view of the liquidated trader, regardless of the price, they lose all the equity they had in their position, and lose the entire one Bitcoin. https://preview.redd.it/wel3rka04cc41.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f93dac2d3b40aa842d281384113d2e26f25947e Assuming there is a fully liquid market, the bid/ask spread should be tighter than the maintenance margin. Here, liquidations manifest as contributions to the insurance fund (e.g. if the maintenance margin is 50bps, but the market is 1bp wide), and the insurance fund should rise by close to the same amount as the maintenance margin when a position is liquidated. In this scenario, as long as healthy liquid markets persist, the insurance fund should continue its steady growth. The following graphs further illustrate the example, and in the first chart, market conditions are healthy with a narrow bid/ask spread (just $2) at the time of liquidation. Here, the closing trade occurs at a higher price than the bankruptcy price (the price where the margin balance is zero) and the insurance fund benefits. Illustrative example of an insurance contribution – Long 100x with 1 BTC collateral https://preview.redd.it/is89ep924cc41.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0419c68fe88703e594c121b5b742c963c7e2229 (Note: The above illustration is based on opening a 100x long position at $4,000 per BTC and 1 Bitcoin of collateral. The illustration is an oversimplification and ignores factors such as fees and other adjustments. The bid and offer prices represent the state of the order book at the time of liquidation. The closing trade price is $3,978, representing $1 of slippage compared to the $3,979 bid price at the time of liquidation.) The second chart shows a wide bid/ask spread at the time of liquidation, here, the closing trade takes place at a lower price than the bankruptcy price, and the insurance fund is used to make sure that winning traders receive their expected profits. This works to stabilize the potential for returns as there is no guarantee that healthy market conditions can continue, especially during periods of heightened price volatility. During these periods, it’s actually possible that the insurance fund can be used up than it is built up. Illustrative example of an insurance depletion – Long 100x with 1 BTC collateral https://preview.redd.it/vb4mj3n54cc41.png?width=707&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c63b7c99ae1c114d8e3b947fb490e9144dfe61b (Notes: The above illustration is based on opening a 100x long position at $4,000 per BTC and 1 Bitcoin of collateral. The illustration is an oversimplification and ignores factors such as fees and other adjustments. The bid and offer prices represent the state of the order book at the time of liquidation. The closing trade price is $3,800, representing $20 of slippage compared to the $3,820 bid price at the time of liquidation.) The exchange declared in February 2019, that the BitMEX insurance fund retained close to 21,000 Bitcoin (around $70 million based on Bitcoin spot prices at the time). This figure represents just 0.007% of BitMEX’s notional annual trading volume, which has been quoted as being approximately $1 trillion. This is higher than the insurance funds as a proportion of trading volume of the CME, and therefore, winning traders on BitMEX are exposed to much larger risks than CME traders as:
This system may appear controversial as first, though some may argue that there is a degree of uniformity to it. It’s also worth noting that the exchange also makes use of Auto Deleveraging which means that on occasion, leveraged positions in profit can still be reduced during certain time periods if a liquidated order cannot be executed in the market. More adventurous traders should note that while the insurance fund holds 21,000 Bitcoin, worth approximately 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, BitMEX still doesn’t offer the same level of guarantees to winning traders that are provided by more traditional leveraged trading platforms. Given the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, there remains some possibility that the fund gets drained down to zero despite its current size. This may result in more successful traders lacking confidence in the platform and choosing to limit their exposure in the event of BitMEX being unable to compensate winning traders. How suitable is BitMEX for Beginners?BitMEX generates high Bitcoin trading levels, and also attracts good levels of volume across other crypto-to-crypto transfers. This helps to maintain a buzz around the exchange, and BitMEX also employs relatively low trading fees, and is available round the world (except to US inhabitants).This helps to attract the attention of people new to the process of trading on leverage and when getting started on the platform there are 5 main navigation Tabs to get used to:
In addition, BitMEX provides a variety of educational resources including an FAQ section, Futures guides, Perpetual Contracts guides, and further resources in the “References” account tab. For users looking for more in depth analysis, the BitMEX blog produces high level descriptions of a number of subjects and has garnered a good reputation among the cryptocurrency community. Most importantly, the exchange also maintains a testnet platform, built on top of testnet Bitcoin, which allows anyone to try out programs and strategies before moving on to the live exchange. This is crucial as despite the wealth of resources available, BitMEX is not really suitable for beginners, and margin trading, futures contracts and swaps are best left to experienced, professional or institutional traders. Margin trading and choosing to engage in leveraged activity are risky processes and even more advanced traders can describe the process as a high risk and high reward “game”. New entrants to the sector should spend a considerable amount of time learning about margin trading and testing out strategies before considering whether to open a live account. Is BitMEX Safe?BitMEX is widely considered to have strong levels of security. The platform uses multi-signature deposits and withdrawal schemes which can only be used by BitMEX partners. BitMEX also utilises Amazon Web Services to protect the servers with text messages and two-factor authentication, as well as hardware tokens.BitMEX also has a system for risk checks, which requires that the sum of all account holdings on the website must be zero. If it’s not, all trading is immediately halted. As noted previously, withdrawals are all individually hand-checked by employees, and private keys are never stored in the cloud. Deposit addresses are externally verified to make sure that they contain matching keys. If they do not, there is an immediate system shutdown. https://preview.redd.it/t04qs3484cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3b106cbc9116713dcdd5e908c00b555fd704ee6 In addition, the BitMEX trading platform is written in kdb+, a database and toolset popular amongst major banks in high frequency trading applications. The BitMEX engine appears to be faster and more reliable than some of its competitors, such as Poloniex and Bittrex. They have email notifications, and PGP encryption is used for all communication. The exchange hasn’t been hacked in the past. How Secure is the platform?As previously mentioned, BitMEX is considered to be a safe exchange and incorporates a number of security protocols that are becoming standard among the sector’s leading exchanges. In addition to making use of Amazon Web Services’ cloud security, all the exchange’s systems can only be accessed after passing through multiple forms of authentication, and individual systems are only able to communicate with each other across approved and monitored channels.Communication is also further secured as the exchange provides optional PGP encryption for all automated emails, and users can insert their PGP public key into the form inside their accounts. Once set up, BitMEX will encrypt and sign all the automated emails sent by you or to your account by the [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) email address. Users can also initiate secure conversations with the support team by using the email address and public key on the Technical Contact, and the team have made their automated system’s PGP key available for verification in their Security Section. The platform’s trading engine is written in kdb+, a database and toolset used by leading financial institutions in high-frequency trading applications, and the speed and reliability of the engine is also used to perform a full risk check after every order placement, trade, settlement, deposit, and withdrawal. All accounts in the system must consistently sum to zero, and if this does not happen then trading on the platform is immediately halted for all users. With regards to wallet security, BitMEX makes use of a multisignature deposit and withdrawal scheme, and all exchange addresses are multisignature by default with all storage being kept offline. Private keys are not stored on any cloud servers and deep cold storage is used for the majority of funds. Furthermore, all deposit addresses sent by the BitMEX system are verified by an external service that works to ensure that they contain the keys controlled by the founders, and in the event that the public keys differ, the system is immediately shut down and trading halted. The exchange’s security practices also see that every withdrawal is audited by hand by a minimum of two employees before being sent out. BitMEX Customer SupportThe trading platform has a 24/7 support on multiple channels, including email, ticket systems and social media. The typical response time from the customer support team is about one hour, and feedback on the customer support generally suggest that the customer service responses are helpful and are not restricted to automated responses.https://preview.redd.it/8k81zl0a4cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e30e5b7ca93d2931f49e2dc84025f2fda386eab1 The BitMEX also offers a knowledge base and FAQs which, although they are not necessarily always helpful, may assist and direct users towards the necessary channels to obtain assistance. BitMEX also offers trading guides which can be accessed here ConclusionThere would appear to be few complaints online about BitMEX, with most issues relating to technical matters or about the complexities of using the website. Older complaints also appeared to include issues relating to low liquidity, but this no longer appears to be an issue.BitMEX is clearly not a platform that is not intended for the amateur investor. The interface is complex and therefore it can be very difficult for users to get used to the platform and to even navigate the website. However, the platform does provide a wide range of tools and once users have experience of the platform they will appreciate the wide range of information that the platform provides. Visit BitMEX |
Federal Reserve officials speaking at a policy conference may get a lot more attention than usual in the week ahead after President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat against Mexico ramped up expectations for interest rate cuts.
Markets will also start the month of June, which is often flat for markets, coming off a painful 6.6% monthly loss in the S&P 500.
Stocks lost ground in May on worries that the U.S. trade war with China would hurt the global economy and bite into earnings growth. They will begin trading in June with new worries that tariffs on Mexico could hurt the economy and threaten a new trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
The coming week has a full calendar of economic data, with the highlight being Friday’s May employment report. There are also monthly auto sales and Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data due Monday, and international trade data expected Thursday.
But it is the Fed that should get the most attention, with central bank officials gathering at a much-anticipated conference hosted by the Chicago Fed Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make the opening remarks at the conference, which is about monetary policy strategy, tools and communications. For months, strategists have been hoping the conference will provide insight into how the Fed intends to address sluggish inflation.
Interest in the event is even higher after the market and Fed watchers are increasingly convinced the central bank will now cut rates this year, and maybe more than once. The futures market priced in increasing expectations for two rate cuts after Trump’s threat to put tariffs on all Mexican goods if the Mexican government does not stop immigration into the U.S.
After the last Fed meeting, Powell said low inflation appears to be transitory, suggesting the Fed would not have to cut rates, but markets still anticipate a rate cut, and inflation continues to run below the Fed’s 2% target.
Michael Gapen, Barclays chief U.S. economists, said investors hoping to hear Fed officials discuss their thinking on current policy could be disappointed. Gapen said the Fed is also about nine months away from its decision on how it will frame inflation, and the conference will be more about academic views on it.
Gapen was one of several Wall Street economists Friday who changed his view on the Fed’s rate policy. He said he now sees the Fed cutting the fed funds target rate by 75 basis points in two cuts this year, with the Fed starting at 50 basis points in September. The Fed has said does not foresee any rate cuts this year, nor hikes, and has stressed it is on hold.
Gapen does not expect to hear much from Fed officials at the conference on rates, though investors will be combing through every word looking for policy clues.
“I don’t think that’s the type of setting where anyone would make a monetary policy comment in advance of an FOMC meeting,” he said. The Fed next meets on June 18 and 19.
Gapen said he went from expecting no Fed move to two rate cuts because the trade war with China has become more extended than expected; manufacturing and business spending are weakening, and because of Trump’s threat to put tariffs on Mexico if it doesn’t control immigrants heading into the U.S. over the southern border.
“It does suggest the administration is willing to pursue multiple fronts. It lowers the bar for tariffs on Europe,” he said.
Interest rates continued to slide Friday, to multi-year lows. The 2-year yield, which most reflects Fed policy, fell sharply and was at 1.93% in late trading. The 10-year yield, at 2.55% in early May, was at 2.13% Friday afternoon. The S&P 500 was down 2.6% for the week, ending its worst week of the year at 2,752.
Sam Stovall, CFRA chief market strategist, said a “May mauling usually leads to a boom in June.” Going back to World War II, whenever there was a strong start to the year, the market traditionally fell in May but rose in June. Plus, this year was the third best start through April.
John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington Private Bank, said beyond the trade headlines, there are quite a few market catalysts in June.
“June is going to be very event-driven. It’s going to be the Fed on June 19. It’s going to be OPEC on June 25; it’s going be the G-20 on June 29,” he said.
He added, “We’re going to stay balanced and diversified because we don’t know how things are going to come out.”
Well, it finally happened. The S&P 500 Index pulled back more than 5% from its all-time high, marking the first 5% pullback of 2019. As we have discussed many times over the past two months, the odds were high that some type of pullback or even correction (10% or more off the highs) was likely after the 25% surge off the December 2018 lows.
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May likely will be the first negative month of the year (down nearly 6% with two days to go) and likely will be the first time stocks closed in the red in May since 2012.
Now, seasonality hints to more volatility ahead, as June doesn’t have the best history for stocks. “We finally had a 5% pullback, but the bad news is June can be a tricky month for stocks,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Going back the past 20 years, only September has been worse on average, and returns have been quite poor in June after a big drop in May.”
As our LPL Chart of the day shows, stocks have tended to be weak in June over various periods.
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Here are six thoughts to chew on as we turn the calendar:
- When the S&P 500 has lost 5% in May (like it could in 2019), June’s performance has been weak. May has lost 5% or more only four other times in the past 50 years, and stocks subsequently fell more than 5% in June twice.
- However, when the S&P 500 has been up more than 10% year to date heading into June (like it could in 2019), the S&P 500 has gained 9 of the past 12 times (going back 50 years), and has been higher 1.9% on average.
- Equity markets in Greece, Brazil, India, Argentina, and Australia are all very strong. If we were truly entering a global recession, we would see more broad-based global weakness.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) daily put/call ratio surged to its highest level since late December yesterday, suggesting a good deal of fear is coming into the market – a necessary recipe for a bottom to form.
- Only 31% of the components in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average. This is nearing washout levels, but could need to go down to 20% before the ultimate low can form. Still, we are getting closer.
- The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey has more than 40% bears, the highest since the start of 2019. That’s another sign fear is spiking, and pessimism could be a bullish contrarian signal.
Barring a 700+ point rally into the close (hey, anything is possible), the DJIA is on pace for its first six-week losing streak since June 2011 and the 32nd such streak going back to 1900. As of this writing, the DJIA is down 6.46% over the course of this current losing streak, which would go down as the mildest six-week losing streak for the index since June 1976 and the fifth 'mildest' six-week losing streak on record. The chart below highlights each of the DJIA's prior six-week losing streaks since 1900 and shows how much the index declined during each one of them.
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While there have been quite a few six-week losing streaks for the DJIA in its history, it is not common for them to go on into a seventh week. As shown in the chart below, just seven of the DJIA's 32 prior six-week losing streaks have last seven or more weeks, and a 7-week losing streak stretching to an eighth week is practically unheard of with just one way back in 1923.
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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 (page 86), the first trading day of June is the sixth best first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 299.85 points since 1998. Over the past 24 years, DJIA’s first trading day of June has produced gains 70.8% of the time with an average gain of 0.04%. Sizable losses in 2002, 2011 and 2012 limit overall performance. S&P 500 has advanced 66.7% of the time. NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 58.3% as has the Russell 2000 at 62.5%. Following three straight losses from 2010 to 2012, DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced six straight years on the first trading day of June.
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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 (page 86), the first trading day of June is the sixth best first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 299.85 points since 1998. Over the past 24 years, DJIA’s first trading day of June has produced gains 70.8% of the time with an average gain of 0.04%. Sizable losses in 2002, 2011 and 2012 limit overall performance. S&P 500 has advanced 66.7% of the time. NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 58.3% as has the Russell 2000 at 62.5%. Following three straight losses from 2010 to 2012, DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced six straight years on the first trading day of June.
Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have faired better with modest average gains. Looking at the chart above, shaded areas highlight areas of strength during the month. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and turned into losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally lead by technology and small-cap. This June could turn out better than average as a result of a strong start to the year and weakness in May.
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Our previous analysis of big gains the first four months indicated weakness was in store for the merry month of May. Now that the market has indeed suffered this May the outlook for June is a boon at least historically speaking.
The table below shows the top 20 first four month gains for the for the S&P 500 with the subsequent changes for May, June, Rest of the Year, “Worst Six Months” May-October, 2nd half July-December and full year performance. While most of the full year gains are clearly logged in these big first-four-month gains, there still upside to be had in the latter part of the year.
May is weakest and May 2019 has delivered market declines so far, down -4.9% for the S&P 500 as of today’s close. However, after big starts, 7 of the 9 subsequent May declines were followed by big gains in June (highlighted in green). So, while we do not anticipate much upside over the next 5 months or so, June is set up for a boon.
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This week's economic data came in split down the middle with 12 releases coming in worse than the prior period or estimates and another 12 improving. A remaining 3 met expectations or were unchanged from the previous period. We noted this same pattern in our Matrix of Economic Indicators for April. The FHFA's House Price Purchase Index for the first quarter was the first release of a shortened week coming in unchanged from the previous quarter at 1.1%. Monthly FHFA and Case-Shiller prices also came out on Tuesday with both showing slower home price growth. Later that morning the Conference Board's readings on Consumer Confidence came in stronger than both forecasts and the April reading. The final release Tuesday, the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Activity, disappointed at -5.3 versus expectations of 6.2. On Wednesday, the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Activity index also came in below expectations but was stronger than the April reading. The second release of Q1 GDP was revised lower but less than expected with growth for Q1 now sitting at 3.1% QoQ SAAR. While consumption growth was stronger, that came thanks in part to inflation measures falling below estimates. Retail and Inventories grew more than expected in April as seen in their Thursday release. Pending home sales were also notably weak. Friday data was better with Personal Income and Spending numbers both beating estimates. Michigan Sentiment was the final release of the week with a reading of 100.0 versus forecasts of 101.5, both below the 102.4 reported in preliminary data.
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With 34 releases, the data slate picks up next week. Monday we will get some important manufacturing data including the final data for May for the Markit PMI and ISM Manufacturing. Revisions for durable goods and the broader factory orders numbers for April will follow up on Tuesday. As next week is the first week of June, on Wednesday ADP will release their employment data for the month of May. This is expected to show fewer jobs created than April. The service portions of Markit PMIs and ISM will also come out Wednesday morning. In addition to the usual Thursday weekly releases, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter are expected. The Employment Situation Report with its Nonfarm Payrolls number will round out the week in economic data on Friday morning.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
- $CRM
- $GES
- $CLDR
- $SFIX
- $BOX
- $MDB
- $TIF
- $CIEN
- $COUP
- $FIVE
- $CBRL
- $AEO
- $DOCU
- $CPB
- $SMAR
- $GME
- $APPS
- $CTK
- $ZM
- $NAV
- $AMBA
- $DOMO
- $DCI
- *$UNFI *
- $GWRE
- $SJM
- $CAL
- $SAIC
- $PVTL
- $SIG
- $CSWC
- $HOME
- $OESX
- $GIII
- $VRA
- $CMD
- $ESTC
- $BYND
- $KIRK
- $OLLI
- $HQY
Monday 6.3.19 Before Market Open:
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Monday 6.3.19 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.4.19 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 6.4.19 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 6.5.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.5.19 After Market Close:
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Thursday 6.6.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.6.19 After Market Close:
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Friday 6.7.19 Before Market Open:
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NONE.
Friday 6.7.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share on revenue of $3.68 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.60 to $0.61 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 22.78% with revenue increasing by 22.42%. Short interest has increased by 2.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $149.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,751 contracts of the $157.50 call expiring on Friday, June 14, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Guess?, Inc. (GES) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 6, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.26 per share on revenue of $539.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.23) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.29 to $0.25 per share on revenue of $534.00 million to $540.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.04% with revenue increasing by 3.48%. Short interest has increased by 264.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.2% below its 200 day moving average of $20.78. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,332 contracts of the $18.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cloudera, Inc. (CLDR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.23 per share on revenue of $188.29 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.19) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.25 to $0.22 per share on revenue of $187.00 million to $190.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 64.29% with revenue increasing by 83.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 29.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.5% below its 200 day moving average of $13.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 23, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,873 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 15.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.1% move in recent quarters.
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Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $394.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $388.00 million to $398.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 133.33% with revenue increasing by 24.57%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% below its 200 day moving average of $27.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,135 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 17.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Box, Inc. (BOX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, June 3, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $161.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.06 to $0.05 per share on revenue of $161.00 million to $162.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 14.96%. Short interest has decreased by 26.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $20.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,385 contracts of the $16.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
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MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.24 per share on revenue of $83.17 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.25 to $0.23 per share on revenue of $82.00 million to $84.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 45.45% with revenue increasing by 72.47%. Short interest has increased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.1% above its 200 day moving average of $97.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 621 contracts of the $130.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 14.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.9% move in recent quarters.
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Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $1.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.40% with revenue decreasing by 1.28%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% below its 200 day moving average of $102.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 11,861 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, November 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 6, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.41 per share on revenue of $816.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $800.00 million to $830.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 78.26% with revenue increasing by 11.84%. Short interest has increased by 30.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 23.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $35.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 31, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,598 contracts of the $35.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, June 3, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $73.79 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.06 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $74.00 million to $74.00 million. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 30.94%. Short interest has increased by 30.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.1% above its 200 day moving average of $79.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,090 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.35 per share on revenue of $365.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.36 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.32 to $0.35 per share on revenue of $361.00 million to $366.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 23.41%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% above its 200 day moving average of $119.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.5% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Federal Reserve officials speaking at a policy conference may get a lot more attention than usual in the week ahead after President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat against Mexico ramped up expectations for interest rate cuts.
Markets will also start the month of June, which is often flat for markets, coming off a painful 6.6% monthly loss in the S&P 500.
Stocks lost ground in May on worries that the U.S. trade war with China would hurt the global economy and bite into earnings growth. They will begin trading in June with new worries that tariffs on Mexico could hurt the economy and threaten a new trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
The coming week has a full calendar of economic data, with the highlight being Friday’s May employment report. There are also monthly auto sales and Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data due Monday, and international trade data expected Thursday.
But it is the Fed that should get the most attention, with central bank officials gathering at a much-anticipated conference hosted by the Chicago Fed Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make the opening remarks at the conference, which is about monetary policy strategy, tools and communications. For months, strategists have been hoping the conference will provide insight into how the Fed intends to address sluggish inflation.
Interest in the event is even higher after the market and Fed watchers are increasingly convinced the central bank will now cut rates this year, and maybe more than once. The futures market priced in increasing expectations for two rate cuts after Trump’s threat to put tariffs on all Mexican goods if the Mexican government does not stop immigration into the U.S.
After the last Fed meeting, Powell said low inflation appears to be transitory, suggesting the Fed would not have to cut rates, but markets still anticipate a rate cut, and inflation continues to run below the Fed’s 2% target.
Michael Gapen, Barclays chief U.S. economists, said investors hoping to hear Fed officials discuss their thinking on current policy could be disappointed. Gapen said the Fed is also about nine months away from its decision on how it will frame inflation, and the conference will be more about academic views on it.
Gapen was one of several Wall Street economists Friday who changed his view on the Fed’s rate policy. He said he now sees the Fed cutting the fed funds target rate by 75 basis points in two cuts this year, with the Fed starting at 50 basis points in September. The Fed has said does not foresee any rate cuts this year, nor hikes, and has stressed it is on hold.
Gapen does not expect to hear much from Fed officials at the conference on rates, though investors will be combing through every word looking for policy clues.
“I don’t think that’s the type of setting where anyone would make a monetary policy comment in advance of an FOMC meeting,” he said. The Fed next meets on June 18 and 19.
Gapen said he went from expecting no Fed move to two rate cuts because the trade war with China has become more extended than expected; manufacturing and business spending are weakening, and because of Trump’s threat to put tariffs on Mexico if it doesn’t control immigrants heading into the U.S. over the southern border.
“It does suggest the administration is willing to pursue multiple fronts. It lowers the bar for tariffs on Europe,” he said.
Interest rates continued to slide Friday, to multi-year lows. The 2-year yield, which most reflects Fed policy, fell sharply and was at 1.93% in late trading. The 10-year yield, at 2.55% in early May, was at 2.13% Friday afternoon. The S&P 500 was down 2.6% for the week, ending its worst week of the year at 2,752.
Sam Stovall, CFRA chief market strategist, said a “May mauling usually leads to a boom in June.” Going back to World War II, whenever there was a strong start to the year, the market traditionally fell in May but rose in June. Plus, this year was the third best start through April.
John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington Private Bank, said beyond the trade headlines, there are quite a few market catalysts in June.
“June is going to be very event-driven. It’s going to be the Fed on June 19. It’s going to be OPEC on June 25; it’s going be the G-20 on June 29,” he said.
He added, “We’re going to stay balanced and diversified because we don’t know how things are going to come out.”
Well, it finally happened. The S&P 500 Index pulled back more than 5% from its all-time high, marking the first 5% pullback of 2019. As we have discussed many times over the past two months, the odds were high that some type of pullback or even correction (10% or more off the highs) was likely after the 25% surge off the December 2018 lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May likely will be the first negative month of the year (down nearly 6% with two days to go) and likely will be the first time stocks closed in the red in May since 2012.
Now, seasonality hints to more volatility ahead, as June doesn’t have the best history for stocks. “We finally had a 5% pullback, but the bad news is June can be a tricky month for stocks,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Going back the past 20 years, only September has been worse on average, and returns have been quite poor in June after a big drop in May.”
As our LPL Chart of the day shows, stocks have tended to be weak in June over various periods.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are six thoughts to chew on as we turn the calendar:
- When the S&P 500 has lost 5% in May (like it could in 2019), June’s performance has been weak. May has lost 5% or more only four other times in the past 50 years, and stocks subsequently fell more than 5% in June twice.
- However, when the S&P 500 has been up more than 10% year to date heading into June (like it could in 2019), the S&P 500 has gained 9 of the past 12 times (going back 50 years), and has been higher 1.9% on average.
- Equity markets in Greece, Brazil, India, Argentina, and Australia are all very strong. If we were truly entering a global recession, we would see more broad-based global weakness.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) daily put/call ratio surged to its highest level since late December yesterday, suggesting a good deal of fear is coming into the market – a necessary recipe for a bottom to form.
- Only 31% of the components in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average. This is nearing washout levels, but could need to go down to 20% before the ultimate low can form. Still, we are getting closer.
- The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey has more than 40% bears, the highest since the start of 2019. That’s another sign fear is spiking, and pessimism could be a bullish contrarian signal.
Barring a 700+ point rally into the close (hey, anything is possible), the DJIA is on pace for its first six-week losing streak since June 2011 and the 32nd such streak going back to 1900. As of this writing, the DJIA is down 6.46% over the course of this current losing streak, which would go down as the mildest six-week losing streak for the index since June 1976 and the fifth 'mildest' six-week losing streak on record. The chart below highlights each of the DJIA's prior six-week losing streaks since 1900 and shows how much the index declined during each one of them.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While there have been quite a few six-week losing streaks for the DJIA in its history, it is not common for them to go on into a seventh week. As shown in the chart below, just seven of the DJIA's 32 prior six-week losing streaks have last seven or more weeks, and a 7-week losing streak stretching to an eighth week is practically unheard of with just one way back in 1923.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 (page 86), the first trading day of June is the sixth best first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 299.85 points since 1998. Over the past 24 years, DJIA’s first trading day of June has produced gains 70.8% of the time with an average gain of 0.04%. Sizable losses in 2002, 2011 and 2012 limit overall performance. S&P 500 has advanced 66.7% of the time. NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 58.3% as has the Russell 2000 at 62.5%. Following three straight losses from 2010 to 2012, DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced six straight years on the first trading day of June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 (page 86), the first trading day of June is the sixth best first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 299.85 points since 1998. Over the past 24 years, DJIA’s first trading day of June has produced gains 70.8% of the time with an average gain of 0.04%. Sizable losses in 2002, 2011 and 2012 limit overall performance. S&P 500 has advanced 66.7% of the time. NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 58.3% as has the Russell 2000 at 62.5%. Following three straight losses from 2010 to 2012, DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced six straight years on the first trading day of June.
Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have faired better with modest average gains. Looking at the chart above, shaded areas highlight areas of strength during the month. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and turned into losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally lead by technology and small-cap. This June could turn out better than average as a result of a strong start to the year and weakness in May.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our previous analysis of big gains the first four months indicated weakness was in store for the merry month of May. Now that the market has indeed suffered this May the outlook for June is a boon at least historically speaking.
The table below shows the top 20 first four month gains for the for the S&P 500 with the subsequent changes for May, June, Rest of the Year, “Worst Six Months” May-October, 2nd half July-December and full year performance. While most of the full year gains are clearly logged in these big first-four-month gains, there still upside to be had in the latter part of the year.
May is weakest and May 2019 has delivered market declines so far, down -4.9% for the S&P 500 as of today’s close. However, after big starts, 7 of the 9 subsequent May declines were followed by big gains in June (highlighted in green). So, while we do not anticipate much upside over the next 5 months or so, June is set up for a boon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This week's economic data came in split down the middle with 12 releases coming in worse than the prior period or estimates and another 12 improving. A remaining 3 met expectations or were unchanged from the previous period. We noted this same pattern in our Matrix of Economic Indicators for April. The FHFA's House Price Purchase Index for the first quarter was the first release of a shortened week coming in unchanged from the previous quarter at 1.1%. Monthly FHFA and Case-Shiller prices also came out on Tuesday with both showing slower home price growth. Later that morning the Conference Board's readings on Consumer Confidence came in stronger than both forecasts and the April reading. The final release Tuesday, the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Activity, disappointed at -5.3 versus expectations of 6.2. On Wednesday, the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Activity index also came in below expectations but was stronger than the April reading. The second release of Q1 GDP was revised lower but less than expected with growth for Q1 now sitting at 3.1% QoQ SAAR. While consumption growth was stronger, that came thanks in part to inflation measures falling below estimates. Retail and Inventories grew more than expected in April as seen in their Thursday release. Pending home sales were also notably weak. Friday data was better with Personal Income and Spending numbers both beating estimates. Michigan Sentiment was the final release of the week with a reading of 100.0 versus forecasts of 101.5, both below the 102.4 reported in preliminary data.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
With 34 releases, the data slate picks up next week. Monday we will get some important manufacturing data including the final data for May for the Markit PMI and ISM Manufacturing. Revisions for durable goods and the broader factory orders numbers for April will follow up on Tuesday. As next week is the first week of June, on Wednesday ADP will release their employment data for the month of May. This is expected to show fewer jobs created than April. The service portions of Markit PMIs and ISM will also come out Wednesday morning. In addition to the usual Thursday weekly releases, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter are expected. The Employment Situation Report with its Nonfarm Payrolls number will round out the week in economic data on Friday morning.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
- $CRM
- $GES
- $CLDR
- $SFIX
- $BOX
- $MDB
- $TIF
- $CIEN
- $COUP
- $FIVE
- $CBRL
- $AEO
- $DOCU
- $CPB
- $SMAR
- $GME
- $APPS
- $CTK
- $ZM
- $NAV
- $AMBA
- $DOMO
- $DCI
- *$UNFI *
- $GWRE
- $SJM
- $CAL
- $SAIC
- $PVTL
- $SIG
- $CSWC
- $HOME
- $OESX
- $GIII
- $VRA
- $CMD
- $ESTC
- $BYND
- $KIRK
- $OLLI
- $HQY
Monday 6.3.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.3.19 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 6.4.19 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 6.4.19 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 6.5.19 Before Market Open:
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Wednesday 6.5.19 After Market Close:
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Thursday 6.6.19 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 6.6.19 After Market Close:
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Friday 6.7.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Friday 6.7.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share on revenue of $3.68 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.60 to $0.61 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 22.78% with revenue increasing by 22.42%. Short interest has increased by 2.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $149.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,751 contracts of the $157.50 call expiring on Friday, June 14, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Guess?, Inc. (GES) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 6, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.26 per share on revenue of $539.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.23) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.29 to $0.25 per share on revenue of $534.00 million to $540.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.04% with revenue increasing by 3.48%. Short interest has increased by 264.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.2% below its 200 day moving average of $20.78. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,332 contracts of the $18.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.6% move in recent quarters.
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Cloudera, Inc. (CLDR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.23 per share on revenue of $188.29 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.19) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.25 to $0.22 per share on revenue of $187.00 million to $190.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 64.29% with revenue increasing by 83.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 29.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.5% below its 200 day moving average of $13.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 23, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,873 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 15.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.1% move in recent quarters.
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Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $394.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $388.00 million to $398.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 133.33% with revenue increasing by 24.57%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% below its 200 day moving average of $27.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,135 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 17.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.2% move in recent quarters.
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Box, Inc. (BOX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, June 3, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $161.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.06 to $0.05 per share on revenue of $161.00 million to $162.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 14.96%. Short interest has decreased by 26.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $20.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,385 contracts of the $16.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
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MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.24 per share on revenue of $83.17 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.25 to $0.23 per share on revenue of $82.00 million to $84.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 45.45% with revenue increasing by 72.47%. Short interest has increased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.1% above its 200 day moving average of $97.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 621 contracts of the $130.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 14.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.9% move in recent quarters.
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Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $1.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.40% with revenue decreasing by 1.28%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% below its 200 day moving average of $102.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 11,861 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, November 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
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Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 6, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.41 per share on revenue of $816.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $800.00 million to $830.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 78.26% with revenue increasing by 11.84%. Short interest has increased by 30.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 23.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $35.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 31, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,598 contracts of the $35.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.
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Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, June 3, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $73.79 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.06 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $74.00 million to $74.00 million. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 30.94%. Short interest has increased by 30.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.1% above its 200 day moving average of $79.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,090 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.
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Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.35 per share on revenue of $365.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.36 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.32 to $0.35 per share on revenue of $361.00 million to $366.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 23.41%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% above its 200 day moving average of $119.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.5% move in recent quarters.
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Guys, First let me say that I own VeChain, but this post is way beyond my personal investment but instead I’d like to provide a fresh look into why VeChain as we the best investments in Blockchain technology for years to come. The market today is all about FOMO and hype, and that’s absolutely fine, the market can continue and increase in total Cap for years to come, but eventually the blockchain and its related tokens will need serious adoption to utilize and incentivise each project. Many of the amazing projects with super high valuation (i.e.: IOTA, EOS…) are just speculation and it may be that they can deliver and all will be well.
However, VeChain is VERY different, as explained by Sunny Lu, the CEO of VeChain. VeChain is building business relations FIRST and letting its customers dictate the path forward. With already agreements in place with the Chinese national Govt as well as many other multi billion dollar companies:
Hubei Sanxin Cultural Media Ltd. BitOcean Healthcare Co. Ltd Xiamen Innov Information Technology Co Ltd A Global Convenience Store Franchise Looking Into Who Is Jiangsu Printed Electronics VeChain teams up with Madeforgoods | CN press release VeChain affirms partnership with China Unicom Global strategic cooperation with DNV GL Groupe Renault teams with Microsoft and... World’s Largest Freight Company to Use Blockchain Tech for Asset Management PwC CN: VeChain S.E.A. becomes a portfolio company of PwC’s incubation... Babyghost and VeChain: Fashion on the Blockchain - Nasdaq.com China’s Largest Wine Importer Wants to Place Wine on a Private Blockchain Bright Fishery (officially announced in weekly report vol.6) And many more with signed NDAs (BMW rumered and more…) VeChain is positioning itself to be in high demand and usage for years to come. VeChain is re-banding itself as VET VeChain/Thor (instead of just VEN) and will deliver a revolutionary new Blockchain-X in Q2 of 2018. With the rebranding they announced a passive income system through proof of stake which is bound to create generous returns for anyone holding 10K of VET or more. You can learn more about the it here: What I think many people are missing is the fact that even if the entire Crypto market crashed (which I don’t see happening at 700B which is still low), the VeChain/Thor will thrive due to the need for its technology and business partners which will adopt the technology in 2018.
So when you are investing in VeChain, you are getting a double reward. If the Crypto market doubles in total Cap, you VET will be worth substentilaly more, but even the market has peaked, the fact that the VeChain ECO system will thrive (and it is a fact IMHO due to the many business relationships) your VET will create a very high ROI. VeChain is exceeding all expectations when it comes to its enterprise market penetration and we are all in January (testnet will be released Q2 of 2018). The investment world is taking notice as Breyercapital and other investment firms are adding VeChain to its very limited blockchain profolio. So I know what you must be thinking, well it all sounds nice and well, so why did VeChain only go up 10x in past month and not 100x.
Well the answer is simply (and I got proof). Whales (many of them Chinese) are well aware that VeChain will be a top player in the crypto work and are trying to gain as many VET as they can before the tokens gets up really high in value. And so market manipulation is happening in unprecedented fashion (never seen anything like it in any other coin) and high sell walls and continues re-buys to force the price to remain low so they can accumulate. Here is a proof: https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k6w5cen3ryu2yt/Chart.png?dl=0 Whales are trying to get enough VET so they own a Mjolnir master node which can pay close to 1,000,000.00 a year if and when the price of VET gets to $25.00
See here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/bfgixylquemgtby/VET.jpg?dl=0 I honestly believe the price will climb well above $100 USD before Q2 2018 as VeChain is a game changing blockchain company in its approach to business relations first and adoption second. This is giving everyone an opportunity to get in now before the Whales stop price manipulation (eventually they will stop since they have accumulated enough and wish to the price climb themselves). I honestly believe this is a once in a lifetime opportunity and this is the reason for my first real post in Reddit Blockchain (all my other posts are on programming Google Angular :) Now let me prove to you that the writing is on the wall. This morning the market crashed +20% and yet you can see that ONLY VeChain is maintaining it’s price, that is because the Whales auto orders are buying everything they can below and above a certain price. As you can see from my snapshot from 8AM this morning:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2aeki6xbwdwjt75/Market.JPG?dl=0 I know many of you think that if you buy into VeChain now you are getting it at its all time high, but in a year you will look back at its current market Cap of 1.5B and you will be amazed at how undervalue it has been (this is my personal opinion and not financial advice). Now don’t take my word for it, always do your own research. I do highly recommend you watch the very popular Boxmining video on VeChain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH2G_44x4vw&t=767s as well as: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42_YmVGs5MA&t=300s and most importantly the VeChain THOR Power Forged AMA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWoEsBQFozM
The opportunity here is mind boggling and while it goes without saying that I have a VET and would like to see it rise in price, I am sure this single post is not going to make even a small dent in its high volume trading and so I am not posting this for my own benefit but instead to open everyone’s eyes to this amazing opportunity. I am an Angular developer and I spentd hundreds of hours developing open source code which is posted on GitHub for the benefit of the Angular community and so I am used to giving back (you can see my Reddit ratings and post history of years). It’s just the first time I am doing the same for the Crypto cumminity, Happy new year and good luck, Sean.
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